October Stats for Santa Cruz & Monterey Counties & the Bay Area

New listings remained the same or close to it in Santa Cruz and Monterey with Santa Clara showing a 15% decline. Sales were up 27% in Santa Cruz, down 5% in Monterey and up 14% in Santa Clara. Median price increased over 3% in Santa Cruz, declined a bit in Monterey and stayed relatively the same in Santa Clara. Days on market jumped significantly in some individual cities but overall stayed the same for a countywide average. Sale to list price ratio decliined over 6%-8% in some areas (Aptos & Los Gatos) and increased over 4% in others (Watsonville). 

New listings continued to decline month over month in Santa Cruz and Monterey while Santa Clara turned the corner in September.  On the flip side sales were down for all three months in Santa Clara while the other two stayed relatively the same except for a September decline in Santa Cruz. The sales peak was in May. Median price is declining after its peak in June as is typical for this time of year. Sale to list price ratio peaked back in April but still showing signs of a sellers' market.

So far not much significant happening, even with some interest rate decline. New listings are still flat with sales actually declining. The ALL-county median price for single family homes is down for the first time this year. Signs of more negotiating?? The days on the market stayed relatively the same and the sale to list price too. Starting to get a little annoying and waiting for a shoe to drop. 

Comments: Since May I have been surprised at the decline in new listings and current sales. Granted there was a very slight uptick in Monterey and Santa Cruz counties but nothing to sneeze at, especially given the time of the year. Surprisingly enough, even the median price dropped for the first time since April. The days on the market dropped substantially, maybe due to some price reductions? Yes, that is substantiated by the reduction in sale to list price across the board. If this trend continues, and we get the promised interest rate decrease, this trend should continue to see some real change. 

Comments: June did not exceed May following in the footsteps of the previous report. There is something understandably weird going on. Fewer new listings across all three counties. Fewer sales except for Santa Cruz. Prices are up in Monterey and Santa Cruz and slightly down in Santa Clara. The days on the market showed some notable change in some areas up and down, but on average per county about the same. Same thing with sale to list price.

Once again let's look at what is selling. When I look at Santa Cruz, 82 out of 114 sales were over $1M. 58 were over $14M. In Monterey, 71 out of 133 were over $1M. 37 were over $1.5M and beyond. In Santa Clara, 777 out of 819 were over $1M. 240 were over $2.6M+. If this trend continues, the decline will continue, and prices will remain high. It will take an interest rate reduction to eventually see some real change.

Comments: Well, I said I couldn't wait to see what happens in May, but I never expected this!! June always exceeds May and look at these numbers. Down across the board for new listings and sales. And not just down...down 39%, 35% and 41% respectively for new listings. And down 46%, 18% and 33% for sales. WOW!

So, let's look at the median price numbers and as you might expect, UP, UP, UP! Days on the market down and sales to list price up as well. Now this makes me wonder what price ranges are selling. When I look at Santa Cruz, 88 out of 150 sales were over $1M. In Monterey, 97 out of 209 sales were over $1M, 13 over $2M and 19 over $3M and beyond. In Santa Clara, 1,112 out of 1,336 sales were over $1M. And besides that, 33-40% of all sales are cash buyers.

Once again, these results were a total surprise to me. I have been tracking stats for almost 25 years and the only anomalies have been 2008 and then 2021.
Is another housing recession looming? 

As I mentioned last month we are in very changing times. Interest rates are still up, and the Fed doesn't seem to want to lower them. 72,000 insurance policies were cancelled by State Farm in CA with other companies threatening.

So, let's look at the numbers one year over the previous. Wow, a serious increase in new listings in all 3 counties. Hello, it seems none of what is happening matters, people are just fed up and getting on with their lives. The same with sales, a 46% increase in Santa Cruz and 38% in Santa Clara County. Oh yeah, and then there are prices! Significantly down in Santa Cruz County (-14.4%) but up in the other two. Sales price to list price declined 3.5 pts in Santa Cruz and almost 1 point in Monterey but good ole Santa Clara County increased over 3 pts across all cities. These statistics were a total surprise to me, as I haven't seen or heard any significant buzz from my cohorts. Can't wait to see what happens in May.
 

March ended up being a surprise to many of us. Santa Cruz proved you can drop prices, negotiate and listings and sales will increase. The opposite is true in both Monterey and Santa Clara counties. Santa Clara County new listings overall dropped 33% and sales dropped 22%. This is not normal for this time of year as spring always brings increases. The only increase was in prices for these two counties. Days on the market dropped significantly across all three counties. The list to sales price ratio only significantly changed in Santa Clara County where it increased 5% over last month. I used to be able to predict the market much better. We are in very changing and interesting times. 

As predicted, new listings across all 3 counties improved. Sales did the same although not as high a percentage. The medium price always tells the story and in this case they were up in Santa Cruz and Monterey and down in Santa Clara. A sign of things to come?? 

Days on the market up as interest rates and inventory continue to hold the market down.  Aptos and Scotts Valley drove up the list to sale price in Santa Cruz, while Carmel did the same in Monterey County. In Santa Clara, it seems Cupertino and Los Gatos had the biggest change. 

The one number not on this spreadsheet is that the total amount of cash sales in Santa Cruz County 0increased to 44% from 40% in December. Monterey was only 29% all cash and Santa Clara 22%.