August Statistics for the Central Coast & the Bay Area
Comments: The big story in these numbers is that the market is not moving uniformly. Santa Clara County remains very tight and seller-friendly, while Santa Cruz and Monterey are showing more signs of balance/softening. The interesting contradiction is that homes are selling faster and almost at asking price, but there are fewer sales and inventory has risen materially relative to sales. That tells me the market isn't broadly collapsing. Rather, buyers are becoming more selective, and well-priced/desirable homes are still moving quickly.
In Santa Clara County, despite sales falling, inventory is still only about two months, and homes are selling for above asking on average. That's still a very strong seller environment. The most important number here may actually be: 102.8% SP/LP. That means the typical successful sale is occurring above the original list price. So, although August sales declined, there is no evidence here of a broad buyer takeover.
In the City of Santa Cruz, the 102.7% sale-to-list ratio is significant: attractive properties are still generating competition. In Monterey County it is a pretty classic cooling-but-not-crashing pattern. Sales held up despite fewer listings, but: DOM increased +11% and inventory increased slightly. That means buyers have somewhat more time and choice.
In Salinas, it is a very tight market compared with much of the region. In fact, Salinas has one of the strongest combinations of: high sales velocity + low inventory + around-list pricing.
But Carmel is quite the opposite and considerably more buyer-friendly. The 93.9% sale-to-list ratio is the biggest indication in this table that high-end Carmel sellers are having to negotiate.
In Los Gatos even though properties that sell are still getting around/above list price, the market has substantially more inventory relative to sales. This suggests a two-tier market: Great homes in desirable locations can still command competition, while less compelling/overpriced inventory is sitting. That's a recurring theme throughout these statistics.
San Jose is a remarkably healthy market given its size. The interesting thing is that sales fell 6.5% while new listings increased 1.6%. That could be an early indication that demand is not absorbing inventory quite as aggressively as before-but not enough to call it a buyer's market.
The data suggests August wasn't a simple "market is cooling" story. It's more like the market is becoming increasingly bifurcated. Highly desirable, correctly priced homes-particularly in Silicon Valley-are still getting multiple offers and selling above list. Meanwhile, higher-priced or less desirable inventory in places like Carmel and Los Gatos is accumulating, giving buyers substantially more leverage. And the Santa Cruz County 3.2 → 4.0 MOI jump is worth watching closely. If that continues for another couple of months, I'd consider it a meaningful shift toward a buyer-friendlier market.
(Display of MLS data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by the MLS as of 8/31/26)
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